POLL: Pro-Trump Republican Holds 10-Point Lead in Special Election

Debbie Lesko, a Pro-Trump and Pro-Border Wall Republican is poised to win an Arizona special election.

As reported by TheHill

Republicans are in a strong position weeks out from Arizona’s House special election, with the party’s nominee holding a sizable 10-point lead, according to a new poll shared first with The Hill.

A survey from Phoenix-based polling firm OH Predictive Insights and ABC15 Arizona found former state Sen. Debbie Lesko (R) garnering 53 percent of the vote, compared to physician and first-time candidate Hiral Tipirneni (D) with 43 percent.

Arizona’s special election has captured some national attention as Republicans look to avoid another upset by Democrats in a district that President Trump won by 21 points in 2016. The election will be held on April 24 to replace ex-GOP Rep. Trent Franks, who resigned from the seat in December after allegedly discussing paying a staffer to carry his child.

Democrats have been overperforming in GOP strongholds, most recently winning a special election in a Pennsylvania district that Trump carried by 20 points. But Arizona’s 8th District trends even more toward Republicans: the GOP has a 17-point voter registration advantage, the district is overwhelmingly white and 45 percent of the voting-age population is 55 or older.

“The GOP is in a prime position for a much-needed win as we head into the midterm elections,” said Mike Noble, managing partner and chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights and a GOP strategist in Arizona. “With such a heavy GOP registration advantage, this race appears a bridge too far for Democrats.”

National Republican groups have committed at least a half-million dollars, though they’re confident they’ll be able to hold the district. The Republican National Committee invested $300,000 in canvassing efforts late last month, while the National Republican Congressional Committee and Congressional Leadership Fund have both spent six figures on the race.

Meanwhile, there’s been less investment from national Democrats. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has done some texting efforts and digital ads to boost Tipirneni’s campaign. The Arizona Democratic Party has received a five-figure grant from the committee as part of the DNC’s State Party Innovation Fund.

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